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the state could go for obama, as it did in 2008. but they could elect a republican attorney general. that's not uncommon. pennsylvania, despite the fact that we're seeing more straight party voting in the last three elections than we used to come unless ticket splitting, but they will still split tickets and elected democrat or republican statewide in a very competitive state despite the fact that pennsylvania has now five times gone democratic in presidential elections. host: your election forecast? another nail biter? guest: i think so. i do not think there will be much change in the legislature. maybe a few seats the republicans can pick up. it will stay the same. the congressional delegation will remain republican. your probably have to give pup -- president a slight edge of this becomes stable with this five-six point lead he house on average. -- he house on average. if you can push to the slightly favoring the president as we move into november 6th. host: terry madonna joining us from paris since the convention, very little st
the state could go for obama, as it did in 2008. but they could elect a republican attorney general. that's not uncommon. pennsylvania, despite the fact that we're seeing more straight party voting in the last three elections than we used to come unless ticket splitting, but they will still split tickets and elected democrat or republican statewide in a very competitive state despite the fact that pennsylvania has now five times gone democratic in presidential elections. host: your election...
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Oct 28, 2012
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the state could go for obama, as it did in 2008. but they could elect a republican attorney general. that's not uncommon. pennsylvania, despite the fact that we're seeing more straight party voting in the last three elections than we used to come unless ticket splitting, but they will still split tickets and elected democrat or republican statewide in a very competitive state despite the fact that pennsylvania has now five times gone democratic in presidential elections. host: your election forecast? another nail biter? guest: i think so. i do not think there will be much change in the legislature. maybe a few seats the republicans can pick up. it will stay the same. the congressional delegation will remain republican. your probably have to give pup -- president a slight edge of this becomes stable with this five-six point lead he house on average. -- he house on average. if you can push to the slightly favoring the president as we move into november 6th. host: terry madonna joining us from paris bird, pa., frank hollande and marsha
the state could go for obama, as it did in 2008. but they could elect a republican attorney general. that's not uncommon. pennsylvania, despite the fact that we're seeing more straight party voting in the last three elections than we used to come unless ticket splitting, but they will still split tickets and elected democrat or republican statewide in a very competitive state despite the fact that pennsylvania has now five times gone democratic in presidential elections. host: your election...
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Oct 28, 2012
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and these tight swing state polls you see no lift at all in the obama camp pain, -- campaign. >> here's the argue. they make. he is still ahead in ohio and wisconsin, still ahead in what they call their fire wall. and even if you give romney all the swing states that they think they're going to win -- virginia, north carolina, florida -- that still only gets him to 248. throw the colorado, 257 electoral votes, needs 2 70 to win. >> couple things about the firewall. you have to question, is obama really ahead in ohio when everyone seems to acknowledge romney's big advantage among independents? this is true of a bunch of swing states. there's a question about who is really ahead. but the other issue is, this is a well-known incumbent late in the race. he is probably persuaded most of the people he is going persuade and his campaign speeches are telling you that. it's a fiercely partisan ideological message he is driving. he is not talking to independents. >> let's get a clip of that. we want to give you an illustration of what james just pointed out. >> not a five point plan by governor r
and these tight swing state polls you see no lift at all in the obama camp pain, -- campaign. >> here's the argue. they make. he is still ahead in ohio and wisconsin, still ahead in what they call their fire wall. and even if you give romney all the swing states that they think they're going to win -- virginia, north carolina, florida -- that still only gets him to 248. throw the colorado, 257 electoral votes, needs 2 70 to win. >> couple things about the firewall. you have to...
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president obama declared a state of emergency for the commonwealth of massachusetts. then it says the president on monday will return to the white house following an event in orlando, florida, to monitor hurricane sandy. that's according to a release from the white house. this is all just coming in. as we look here, the metro in washington, d.c., closed on monday due to hurricane sandy. unclear when the service will be restored. that's according to the transit authorities. they don't know in a city as big as washington, d.c., when they're going to get their mass transit back up. a lot of people don't even have cars. so there's nowhere to go unless you're going to walk in that weather. and then here is a new thing just coming in. president obama has declared a state of emergency in the state of new york ahead of the arrival of hurricane sandy according to a release from the white house. and as i close this, i'm sure there are more that will come through. so you're getting the very latest as i'm getting it so don't worry about that rundown i showed you on the right side
president obama declared a state of emergency for the commonwealth of massachusetts. then it says the president on monday will return to the white house following an event in orlando, florida, to monitor hurricane sandy. that's according to a release from the white house. this is all just coming in. as we look here, the metro in washington, d.c., closed on monday due to hurricane sandy. unclear when the service will be restored. that's according to the transit authorities. they don't know in a...
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Oct 28, 2012
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crucial swing states. instead we're told the president will be spending more time in the white house monitoring the storm as it approaches. as for mitt romney, he is having to make changes, as well here. he's canceled all of his campaign events in virginia. instead, he will now join running mate paul ryan on a tour of another swing state, ohio. the nominee will campaign in iowa, wisconsin, and new hampshire through tuesday. >>> breaking news not just on sandy but on the hawaiian tsunami advisory. stay with us for the latest and more about sandy's projected path, how you can help, go to our impact your world web site, cnn.com/impact. >>> and as we've seen, people are getting ready to evacuate from the path of the hurricane, as we saw in north carolina. people sticking around to ride this thing out. the issue is they're not all sure their homes will still be there when they return. here's a look at how people really up and down the east coast are preparing for what could be an historic storm. >>> one of the
crucial swing states. instead we're told the president will be spending more time in the white house monitoring the storm as it approaches. as for mitt romney, he is having to make changes, as well here. he's canceled all of his campaign events in virginia. instead, he will now join running mate paul ryan on a tour of another swing state, ohio. the nominee will campaign in iowa, wisconsin, and new hampshire through tuesday. >>> breaking news not just on sandy but on the hawaiian...
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president obama stopped campaigning today to meet with fema. mitt romney had to cancel rallies in the state of maryland a short time ago, calling off the first day of early voting tomorrow. and look at this tonight. it all comes as the latest abc news poll shows this is a dead heat, mitt romney, ahead of president obama by just one point, 49% to 48%. and with a race this tight, a big question tonight -- could the hurricane upend this final stretch? here's abc's senior political correspondent jon karl tonight. >> reporter: it's mother nature's october surprise. a storm so big and so destructive, it could throw the campaign's final week into chaos. >> the storm will throw a little bit of havoc into the race. >> reporter: for president obama, it meant canceling two upcoming events and visiting fema headquarters, vowing an immediate response to the storm. >> we're going to cut through red tape, we're not going to get bogged down with a lot of rules. we want to make sure we are anticipating and leaning forward. >> reporter: there are political stake
president obama stopped campaigning today to meet with fema. mitt romney had to cancel rallies in the state of maryland a short time ago, calling off the first day of early voting tomorrow. and look at this tonight. it all comes as the latest abc news poll shows this is a dead heat, mitt romney, ahead of president obama by just one point, 49% to 48%. and with a race this tight, a big question tonight -- could the hurricane upend this final stretch? here's abc's senior political correspondent...
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Oct 28, 2012
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what areas do you differ with with president obama? >> when you represent a state like ours, you have to make a commitment and have your work reflect the fact you are an independent voice for the people of the state. i think i have done that. when i have made changes to have a stronger health care system or have made make -- moves to create jobs in philadelphia, we could deepen the channel and get bigger ships. in terms of differences, the differences i have had with the president have been fairly substantial. for example, a trade agreement. a lot powerful interests in washington wanted us to have a trade agreement with south korea, columbia, and panama. i voted against all three. one, i thought that pennsylvania would get the short end of that stick. i think we have some history with nafta that did not go very well for our state. another example, the currency manipulation by china. when china cheats on currency, we lose jobs i and of selena. those are two, and i can list some more. there is a contrast here on this stage. i am against
what areas do you differ with with president obama? >> when you represent a state like ours, you have to make a commitment and have your work reflect the fact you are an independent voice for the people of the state. i think i have done that. when i have made changes to have a stronger health care system or have made make -- moves to create jobs in philadelphia, we could deepen the channel and get bigger ships. in terms of differences, the differences i have had with the president have...
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this is one of the key swing states we've been watching. so this new "washington post" poll shows president obama with a four-point advantage over mitt romney. it's a -- a change certainly over the 1-point lead romney enjoyed there last week. heading northward to pennsylvania, the president has a six-point lead in this new poll from the "philadelphia enquirer." ho romney's gained growned since early -- ground since early october. and finally ohio, ohio, ohio, the mother of the battleground states. the four-point advantage to obama. the latest cnn/orc poll. you have the polls and numbers, but we want to hear directly from the voters. we sent the cnn election express on the road to take the polls of voters in some of these key swing states. we're calling it the battleground bus tour. and we have cnn political contributor john avalon joining me bright and early on this sunday. fancy meeting you here, friend. what, ali velshi couldn't -- >> good morning, brooke. >> you couldn't wake alli velsh up to join you? >> this morning i drew the short st
this is one of the key swing states we've been watching. so this new "washington post" poll shows president obama with a four-point advantage over mitt romney. it's a -- a change certainly over the 1-point lead romney enjoyed there last week. heading northward to pennsylvania, the president has a six-point lead in this new poll from the "philadelphia enquirer." ho romney's gained growned since early -- ground since early october. and finally ohio, ohio, ohio, the mother of...
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today, three-point lead for obama in minnesota a state no one talked about. >> astonishing. >> michigan and pennsylvania are in play. >> very close. >> two polls in ohio in the last two days, dead even. >> we are talking about the rasmussen poll and columbus dispatch poll. here is the columbus dispatch, a consortium of newspapers in ohio: dead tie at 49 and 49 and 48 and 48 in rasmussen. >>doug: this has been the obama firewall. the president has had a two or three-point lead and strong ground game probably an advantage early in the voting. all the movement now there appears to be to governor romney. he needs ohio to win. otherwise, it is a much more difficult process. >> and rasmussen has it dead even. >>gregg: can romney win pennsylvania? >>pat: it is very close. no one is spending money or time, the second oldest state, they don't like obamacare and it depends on the affluent suburbs. >> why are the candidates not going to the states? >> the world is flat, i cannot move. the fact is, you take advantage of opportunity. like obama did with indiana and north carolina. >> do they think n
today, three-point lead for obama in minnesota a state no one talked about. >> astonishing. >> michigan and pennsylvania are in play. >> very close. >> two polls in ohio in the last two days, dead even. >> we are talking about the rasmussen poll and columbus dispatch poll. here is the columbus dispatch, a consortium of newspapers in ohio: dead tie at 49 and 49 and 48 and 48 in rasmussen. >>doug: this has been the obama firewall. the president has had a two or...
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obviously, president obama is not going to be able to be campaigning in some of these states. and we are talking about at least two, virginia and pennsylvania, swing states being affected. but possibly much more than two. we could see new hampshire affected depending on how high this goes. we could see ohio affected depending on how far in it goes. so it is a very significant thing for presidential politics and also for state politics. we have some very close races in places like connecticut and like massachusetts. >> standby, guys, we have to get to other stuff, but i want to say federal law says the election has to be held on the first tuesday after the first monday in november. so end of discussion, i think, except for what ana said, maybe some late votes, they could extend that. we don't know. we don't know. thank you. we'll check back in with you. much of the east coast already being drench bid sandy. ahead, we'll tell you which areas are bracing for the worst of the storm. don't go anywhere. >>> all right. here it is. new jersey governor chris christie holding a briefing
obviously, president obama is not going to be able to be campaigning in some of these states. and we are talking about at least two, virginia and pennsylvania, swing states being affected. but possibly much more than two. we could see new hampshire affected depending on how high this goes. we could see ohio affected depending on how far in it goes. so it is a very significant thing for presidential politics and also for state politics. we have some very close races in places like connecticut...
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like in ohio, in florida -- like ohio now, 50% for obama, 46%, romney. you can do that with all of them. and then there's a margin of error. if you have a three or four-point margin of error, you'll say, obama's in the lead but he's within the three-point margin of error, you really haven't told me anything. >> we've told you it's a close race. >> all right. let's talk about the poll of polls. when you factor -- there are different factors, there are different methodologies that go into poll of polls, right? but people -- the people who do the polling don't consider a margin of error but there are different margins of error that go into the poll of polls. what? >> i think the polls of polls or the various websites that track and aggregate the polls are useful. it's a place to look at a lot of polls at once. but those numbers are mixing good polls and bad polls, really large, substantial polls with really small minor polls. it's hard to get much other than a finger in the wind of how things might be blowing at the moment. i think it all -- it's all a part
like in ohio, in florida -- like ohio now, 50% for obama, 46%, romney. you can do that with all of them. and then there's a margin of error. if you have a three or four-point margin of error, you'll say, obama's in the lead but he's within the three-point margin of error, you really haven't told me anything. >> we've told you it's a close race. >> all right. let's talk about the poll of polls. when you factor -- there are different factors, there are different methodologies that go...
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president obama has canceled trips to crucial swing states like virginia. he is headed back to the white house to monitor the storm, and mitt romney as well deciding to cancel some of his campaign events in virginia this week. he instead will be joining his running mate paul ryan on a bus tour of ohio. romney will also campaign in iowa, wisconsin, and new hampshire in the next, couple of days. >>> now so sandy and the trajectory here of this super storm. let's talk to bonnie schneider. good morning once again. when is sandy expected to make landfall? >> sometime late monday, early tuesday, but brook, it's important to note this is a large storm. the impacts will be felt before the actual land fall occurs. the latest 8:00 advisory shows the position is now 395 miles east of new york city. it's the first time we're seeing that mentioned in a position statement. so much to talk about. so little time. here's a look at the movement you can see to the northeast at 10 miles per hour. a category one hurricane. we're expecting it to come in as a hurricane. last year
president obama has canceled trips to crucial swing states like virginia. he is headed back to the white house to monitor the storm, and mitt romney as well deciding to cancel some of his campaign events in virginia this week. he instead will be joining his running mate paul ryan on a bus tour of ohio. romney will also campaign in iowa, wisconsin, and new hampshire in the next, couple of days. >>> now so sandy and the trajectory here of this super storm. let's talk to bonnie schneider....
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>> iowa is a key state. it's part of barack obama's mid western fire wall. he needs to win iowa, wisconsin and ohio. if romney wins both florida and virginia. the obama campaign said they're ahead in iowa right now, this could make some difference in the end and it reinforces the argument that romney is making. he's best positioned to make the bipartisan compromises america needs. >> just over a week to go and it just got even more interesting. george stephanopoulos, thank you. george has a huge show this morning, his guests include stephanie cutter from the obama campaign and the former house speaker newt gingrich. >>> now, a check of other top mornings. >> there's other news. >>> good morning, everyone. another potential attack on a u.s. embassy may have been thwarted. police in indonesia said they have arrested on attacks, including the american embassy in jakarta. >>> new details on the tragic story of the new york city nanny who allegedly killed two young children. friends and relatives said that nanny had been unraveling in recent months. ortega is sti
>> iowa is a key state. it's part of barack obama's mid western fire wall. he needs to win iowa, wisconsin and ohio. if romney wins both florida and virginia. the obama campaign said they're ahead in iowa right now, this could make some difference in the end and it reinforces the argument that romney is making. he's best positioned to make the bipartisan compromises america needs. >> just over a week to go and it just got even more interesting. george stephanopoulos, thank you....
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>> iowa is a key state. it's part of barack obama's midwestern fire wall. he needs to win iowa, wisconsin and ohio if governor romney wins both florida and virginia and this could have an effect. it could affect independent swing voters in iowa right now. the obama campaign says they are ahead in iowa right now. this could make some difference in the end, and it reinforces the argument that romney is making headway. he is best positioned to make the bipartisan compromises america needs. that echoes romney's message in these closing days. >> just over a week to go and it just got even more interesting. george stephanopoulos, thank you. george, by the way, has a huge show this morning. his guests include stephanie cutter from the obama campaign and the former house speaker newt gingrich. >>> now let's get a check of the morning's other top news. there is other news happening. >> hi, good morning, everyone. >>> another potential attack on a u.s. embassy may have been thwarted and police in indonesia say they have arrested 11 people suspected of planning attack
>> iowa is a key state. it's part of barack obama's midwestern fire wall. he needs to win iowa, wisconsin and ohio if governor romney wins both florida and virginia and this could have an effect. it could affect independent swing voters in iowa right now. the obama campaign says they are ahead in iowa right now. this could make some difference in the end, and it reinforces the argument that romney is making headway. he is best positioned to make the bipartisan compromises america needs....
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time is running out before this evacuation order of this coastal state goes into order. beaches to rehoboth beach will close in 90 minutes from now. at 7:00 p.m. new york city's transportation system will begin shutting down for prep president obama called big, serious and slow moving. i want to bring the latest from dylan drier. not a lot of changes. nothing is happening. it's a massive, big and lumbering. >> that's the problem because it is so massive and big and lumbering, as you called it, the storm, no matter where it goes is going to wreak havoc. we have been talking about this storm, putting it in terms of unprecedented, historic, something we have never seen before. there are quite a quu factors of why we can say that with a definitive stance on it. here it is. this is the size of the storm in ohio and pittsburgh. it's a frontal system that's moving from east to west. it's drawing in this storm and the storm itself is still more than 300 miles to the east of the carolinas. cape hatteras dealing with torrential rain. gusting winds 40 to 50 miles per hour and the s
time is running out before this evacuation order of this coastal state goes into order. beaches to rehoboth beach will close in 90 minutes from now. at 7:00 p.m. new york city's transportation system will begin shutting down for prep president obama called big, serious and slow moving. i want to bring the latest from dylan drier. not a lot of changes. nothing is happening. it's a massive, big and lumbering. >> that's the problem because it is so massive and big and lumbering, as you...
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that state is going red, we know that. but in the state of iowa, sir, a small percentage of people still undecided, one that could go either way, might it in this case make a difference? >> i think it's very unlikely. i think that endorsements don't influence people except in down ballot races. "the new york times" just endorsed obama. what a surprise. i don't think that will have any influence either. i'm sure it's a well-written editorial. i haven't seen it, but endorsements don't matter when people know the candidates as well as they know barack obama and mitt romney. >> you i'm sure you saw the comment from thursday night from john sununu. >> when you take a look at colin powell, is that an endorsement based on issues or he has a slightly different reason for preferring president obama. >> what reason would that be? >> i think when you have somebody of your own race that you are proud of being president of the united states, applaud colin for standing with him. >> what was your reaction to that? >> i am sorry about tha
that state is going red, we know that. but in the state of iowa, sir, a small percentage of people still undecided, one that could go either way, might it in this case make a difference? >> i think it's very unlikely. i think that endorsements don't influence people except in down ballot races. "the new york times" just endorsed obama. what a surprise. i don't think that will have any influence either. i'm sure it's a well-written editorial. i haven't seen it, but endorsements...
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is currently president of the united states. incumbent. only five presidents in the past century lost reelection for a second term. let's take a look and see why they lost their elections and if the president should be worried. right now, joining us from d.c. is presidential historian, nick, good morning to you. >> good morning, steve. >> steve: let's go back to george herbert walker bush, president 41, he lost because? >> he got hit with a poor economy and it's unfortunate, if you look in the fourth quarter of 1992, actually we grew at 4%. if that election had been a few weeks later, he probably would have won. he was at 90% in the polls 18 months before that and then the recession hit, but we started coming out of it, he just was the product of bad fortune, i think, more than anything and clinton was a good candidate. >> steve: nick, i think you're avoiding the elephant in the room. what about ross perot, a texas businessman who came from nowhere, shot up in the polls and wind up with 19% of the-- >> 19%. >> steve: and eventua
is currently president of the united states. incumbent. only five presidents in the past century lost reelection for a second term. let's take a look and see why they lost their elections and if the president should be worried. right now, joining us from d.c. is presidential historian, nick, good morning to you. >> good morning, steve. >> steve: let's go back to george herbert walker bush, president 41, he lost because? >> he got hit with a poor economy and it's unfortunate,...